Chapter 9: Smoothing Out Economic Cycles

The economic impact of recessions and boom cycles on joining the military make recruitment too cyclical.

Solution: The military recruitment needs to be detached from economic cycles by promoting side hustles and explaining pay in ways that are similar to other jobs.

The larger macroeconomic cycle is going to have an impact on every industry. The military, being a government organization that must always be on call, is actually countercyclical to prevailing hiring trends. For one, it's reasonable to say that the world gets more unstable during economic crashes as the potential for conflict rises, thus encouraging increased spending on the military. More than that, when other companies freeze hiring and shut their doors to new graduates, the military becomes a much more attractive option with its pay guarantee and stable job. For years, recruiters have battled the federal reserve while trying to maintain balanced numbers throughout the whole cycle. Current estimates have that a 10% decrease in civilian unemployment reduces the number of qualified recruits by upwards of 4%.[1]

While joining the military isn't often done to make money, relative economic progress and social standing matter. Contrary to popular perception, the military is firmly made up of the middle class of Americans. Among enlisted recruits, the middle three income quintiles are overrepresented, and the top and bottom quintiles are underrepresented[2]. Putting this together, the military's recruiting focus logically attracts the middle class and should ideally be able to maintain that middle-class lifestyle during and post-service. In the end, the economic impact of recessions and boom cycles on joining the military makes recruitment too cyclical. Military recruitment needs to be detached from economic cycles by promoting side hustles and explaining pay in ways that are similar to other jobs…

[1] John T. Warner, “The Effect of the Civilian Economy on Recruiting and Retention,” in U.S. Department of Defense, Report of the Eleventh Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation, supporting research papers, Part 1, Chapter 2, June 2012

[2] Council on Foreign Relations. “Demographics of the U.S. Military.”. Accessed April 9, 2023. https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/demographics-us-military. 

Matthew Weiss is currently an Intelligence Officer in the United States Marine Corps. His book, “We Don’t Want You, Uncle Sam: Examining the Military Recruiting Crisis with Generation Z” is available on amazon in paperback, e-book, and audiobook format.